Marseille vs Lorient prediction 12.09.2025 | Ligue 1
Kick off:
Date:
1
1.38
X
5.63
2
8.70
Contents
- Competition: Ligue 1
- Date: Friday, 12th September, 2025
- Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CEST
- Venue: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)
On Friday evening, nine-time French champions Marseille will host newly promoted Lorient at the Stade Vélodrome in the fourth round of Ligue 1. Both sides enter the match in poor form, having lost two of their first three games, and will be eager to turn their fortunes around. Let's break down the match and find the best possible bet for this tie.
vs Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Marseille
3 : 1
Lorient
Ligue 1
-
Lorient
2 : 4
Marseille
Ligue 1
-
Lorient
0 : 0
Marseille
Ligue 1
-
Marseille
3 : 1
Lorient
Ligue 1
-
Lorient
0 : 3
Marseille
Ligue 1
-
Marseille
4 : 1
Lorient
Ligue 1
These teams met last time in the season before the last one, when Marseille won 3:1 at home and 4:2 away from home. Looking further back, Marseille absolutely dominated, winning nine out of ten games, while one match ended as a draw.
Regarding the number of goals, seven out of those ten games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored on six occasions.
Marseille team overview
With the exception of the 2023/24 season, Marseille have been a top-three team in France in the last few years. Last year, they finished second, but not close to the top spot as PSG left them 19 points behind. This year, the Olympians opened the season poorly, winning three points in the first three rounds despite facing relatively modest opposition.
In the last game against Lyon, central defender CJ Egan-Riley received a straight red card and will be suspended for the Lorient match. We expect Derek Cornelius to start as a replacement at the back, along with Leonardo Balerdi. Additionally, the Olympians will most likely be without Hamed Junior Traore, who suffered an injury in his debut game vs Lyon.
Last matches of
-
Lyon
1 : 0
Marseille
Ligue 1
-
Marseille
5 : 2
Paris FC
Ligue 1
-
Rennes
1 : 0
Marseille
Ligue 1
-
Marseille
3 : 1
Aston Villa
Club Friendlies 3
-
Marseille
1 : 1
Sevilla
Club Friendlies 3
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Gerónimo Rulli
Defenders
-
62
Amir Murillo
-
13
Derek Cornelius
-
5
Leonardo Balerdi
-
22
Timothy Weah
Midfielders
-
8
Angel Gomes
-
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
-
26
Bilal Nadir
Forwards
-
10
Mason Greenwood
-
97
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
-
9
Amine Gouiri
Lorient team overview
Lorient suffered relegation from Ligue 1 in 2023/24 but managed to return to the French top-flight division in the following season. This year, their only goal is to somehow secure survival, but the season did not start well. They won three points in the first three matches, and they only won those three points because Rennes received two early red cards. Right now, the bookies see them as one of the main relegation candidates, with the odds between 3.8 and 4.33 for them to get relegated. Only Angers, Metz, and Le Havre are considered to have a lower chance of survival.
In the last game vs Lille, winger Panos Katseris suffered an injury and had to leave the field after 15 minutes. He will most likely remain sidelined for the Marseille match.
Last matches of
-
Lorient
1 : 7
Lille
Ligue 1
-
Lorient
4 : 0
Rennes
Ligue 1
-
Angers
1 : 0
Lorient
Club Friendlies 3
-
Guingamp
1 : 1
Lorient
Club Friendlies 3
-
Lorient
5 : 1
Fleury 91
Club Friendlies
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
21
Bingourou Kamara
Defenders
-
2
Igor Silva
-
3
Montassar Talbi
-
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Midfielders
-
44
Darlin Yongwa
-
62
Arthur Avom
-
6
Laurent Abergel
-
43
Arsene Kouassi
Forwards
-
29
Dermane Karim
-
28
Sambou Soumano
-
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Prediction
Marseille won their only home game this year and lost two road ones. However, in those matches they lost vs Lyon and Rennes, they deserved a lot more, and we believe the result will soon come, both at home and on the road.
Meanwhile, Lorient's only win came vs Rennes at home, but because the opponents received red cards in the 6th and 11th minutes. Without those red cards, we believe they wouldn't stand a chance. In the other two games, they were absolutely terrible, especially in the last game vs Lille, where they lost 7:1.
So, even though both teams have won three points thus far, there is a massive difference in their performances, in our opinion. Also, in the previous ten h2h games, Marseille won nine times, while covering the -1.5 AH spread on seven occasions (70%).
Considering all the above, we believe Marseille should secure a pretty comfortable win at home at Stade Vélodrome against Lorient.
4 Reasons why Marseille should win and cover the -1.5 AH spread
- Marseille won their only home game this year
- Lorient lost their only road game this season
- Marseille won nine of the last ten h2h games
- Marseille covered the -1.5 AH spread in seven out of the previous ten h2h games
Main prediction -
AH1 (-1.5)
Best Odds:
Melbet
2.03
vs standings in Ligue 1
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 - 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyonnais | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 - 0 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | LOSC Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 - 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 - 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 5 | Lens | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 - 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 - 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 - 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Angers SCO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 - 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 - 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 - 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Le Havre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 - 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Nice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 - 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Nantes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 - 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 - 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Paris | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 - 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Lorient | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 - 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Brest | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 - 8 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Metz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 - 7 | -5 | 0 |