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Manchester City vs Nottingham prediction 04.03.2026 | Premier League

Manchester City

Manchester City

Kick off:

Date:

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

1

1.43

X

5.23

2

7.90

  • Competition: Premier League
  • Date: Wednesday, 4th March, 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:30 UK / 20:30 CET
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

On Wednesday evening, Manchester City will welcome Nottingham in one of the most interesting games of the 29th round. Manchester City are trying to catch up with Arsenal and move closer to the top spot, while Nottingham are desperate for points to keep themselves from dropping down to the danger zone. 

These two teams come to the game with very different momentum: the Citizens have won six in a row, while the Forest have lost three in a row.

Let's break down the match and find the best possible bet for this Premier League tie.

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Nottingham Forest

    1 : 2

    Manchester City

    Premier League

  2. Nottingham Forest

    0 : 2

    Manchester City

    FA Cup

  3. Nottingham Forest

    1 : 0

    Manchester City

    Premier League

  4. Manchester City

    3 : 0

    Nottingham Forest

    Premier League

  5. Nottingham Forest

    0 : 2

    Manchester City

    Premier League

  6. Manchester City

    2 : 0

    Nottingham Forest

    Premier League

In the first H2H game this season, Manchester City won 2:1. Looking further back, in the past ten H2H matches, the Citizens won seven games and the Forest only two. 

Regarding the number of goals, five of the past ten H2H games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in two of them.

Manchester City

Manchester City team overview

Manchester City had a bit of an underwhelming start to the season, and many football experts doubted them. However, as the season progresses, the Citizens are only getting better and came pretty close to the top spot in the PL. At the moment, they are five points behind Arsenal, but with one game played fewer. Besides their good PL campaign, the Citizens were great in the Cup competitions as well - reaching the FA Cup and Champions League 1/8 Finals, and the EFL Cup Finals. It will be very interesting to see how well they handle such a busy schedule in the remaining season. 

After a 1:0 win over Leeds, coach Pep Guardiola spoke to the media. He said it was a huge victory for them, emphasizing the difficulty of the match. The coach said they did not create many clear chances, but defended well and showed focus throughout the game. 

Nico O'Reilly suffered an injury in the previous game and will remain sidelined along with Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, and Erling Haaland, who missed the previous game(s). 

Last matches of Manchester City

  1. Leeds United

    0 : 1

    Manchester City

    Premier League

  2. Manchester City

    2 : 1

    Newcastle United

    Premier League

  3. Manchester City

    2 : 0

    Salford City

    FA Cup

  4. Manchester City

    3 : 0

    Fulham

    Premier League

  5. Liverpool

    1 : 2

    Manchester City

    Premier League

Manchester City lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 25

    Gianluigi Donnarumma

Defenders

  • 27

    Matheus Nunes

  • 15

    Marc Guéhi

  • 3

    Rúben Dias

  • 21

    Rayan Aït-Nouri

Midfielders

  • 47

    Phil Foden

  • 20

    Bernardo Silva

  • 16

    Rodri

Forwards

  • 42

    Antoine Semenyo

  • 7

    Omar Marmoush

  • 11

    Jérémy Doku

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham team overview

Nottingham were amazing last season, but that all collapsed after coach Nuno Espirito Santo left due to disagreements with the board. After Santo left, the Forest already changed two coaches (Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche). In February 2026, they appointed Vitor Pereira, but it seems that didn't do much as they lost three of four games. Right now, they are in 17th place in the PL with 27 points from 28 rounds - just two points away from the relegation zone. Pretty much their only good performance this season was in the EL, where they reached the 1/8 Finals after beating Fenerbahce in the previous round. However, according to credible sources, their focus is 100% on avoiding relegation from the PL. 

After a 2:1 loss to Brighton, coach Vítor Pereira spoke to the media. He described the defeat as a lost opportunity to climb away from the relegation zone. The coach said they had a very difficult first half, mainly due to a lack of energy to press as he wanted, and eventually left too much space for Brighton to attack. 

The team should have no new injuries for the upcoming game. Still, the players who missed the previous games should remain sidelined - John Victor, Chris Wood, Nicolo Savona, Willy Boly, and Stefan Ortega Moreno.

Last matches of Nottingham Forest

  1. Brighton & Hove Albion

    2 : 1

    Nottingham Forest

    Premier League

  2. Nottingham Forest

    1 : 2

    Fenerbahce

    Europa League

  3. Nottingham Forest

    0 : 1

    Liverpool

    Premier League

  4. Fenerbahce

    0 : 3

    Nottingham Forest

    Europa League

  5. Nottingham Forest

    0 : 0

    Wolverhampton Wanderers

    Premier League

Nottingham Forest lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 26

    Matz Sels

Defenders

  • 34

    Ola Aina

  • 31

    Nikola Milenković

  • 5

    Murillo

  • 3

    Neco Williams

Midfielders

  • 6

    Ibrahim Sangaré

  • 10

    Morgan Gibbs-White

  • 8

    Elliot Anderson

Forwards

  • 21

    Omari Hutchinson

  • 19

    Igor Jesus

  • 7

    Callum Hudson-Odoi

Prediction

Manchester City won six in a row and are undefeated in their past nine matches. Also, at home, the Citizens were amazing, having an 82% win rate (18 out of 22 matches). More impressively, they covered the -1.5 AH spread on 16 occasions! 

Nottingham lost three in a row across competitions. The Forest have been bad through the season, and it seems they are only getting worse as the season progresses. In the PL, they won only two points over the past five matches! 

The Citizens were much better in the previous H2H games, winning five of the past six and covering the spread on four occasions. 

Considering the trend in previous H2H games, the difference in form, and the home-pitch advantage, we believe Manchester City will secure a comfortable win.

4 Reasons why Manchester City should win and cover the -1.5 AH spread

  1. Manchester City won six in a row
  2. Manchester City have an 82% win rate at home
  3. Nottingham lost three in a row
  4. Manchester City won five of the past six H2H games

Main prediction Manchester City - Nottingham Forest

AH1 (-1.5)

Updated

clock
winrate

53% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

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Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest standings in Premier League

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Arsenal 29 19 7 3 58 - 22 +36 64
2 Manchester City 28 18 5 5 57 - 25 +32 59
3 Manchester United 28 14 9 5 50 - 38 +12 51
4 Aston Villa 28 15 6 7 38 - 30 +8 51
5 Liverpool 28 14 6 8 47 - 37 +10 48
6 Chelsea 28 12 9 7 49 - 33 +16 45
7 Brentford 28 13 4 11 44 - 40 +4 43
8 Everton 28 11 7 10 32 - 33 -1 40
9 Fulham 28 12 4 12 40 - 42 -2 40
10 AFC Bournemouth 28 9 12 7 44 - 46 -2 39
11 Brighton & Hove Albion 28 9 10 9 38 - 35 +3 37
12 Sunderland 28 9 10 9 29 - 34 -5 37
13 Newcastle United 28 10 6 12 40 - 42 -2 36
14 Crystal Palace 28 9 8 11 30 - 34 -4 35
15 Leeds United 28 7 10 11 37 - 47 -10 31
16 Tottenham Hotspur 28 7 8 13 38 - 43 -5 29
17 Nottingham Forest 28 7 6 15 26 - 41 -15 27
18 West Ham United 28 6 7 15 34 - 54 -20 25
19 Burnley 28 4 7 17 32 - 56 -24 19
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 29 2 7 20 20 - 51 -31 13

Manchester City vs Nottingham – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Manchester City this season?

The average xG for Manchester City in the Premier League this season is 1.68.

? How much is the average xG for Nottingham this season?

The average xG for Nottingham in the Premier League this season is 1.49.