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Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction 26.03.2026 | World Cup qualifications

Italy

Italy

Kick off:

Date:

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland

1

1.31

X

5.69

2

13.40

  • Competition: World Cup qualifications
  • Date: Thursday, 26th March 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
  • Venue: New Balance Arena (Bergamo)

The World Cup qualifications are reaching the boiling point, and the upcoming days will answer a lot of questions for us. Italy surprisingly didn't end at the top of their group and now have to win two matches to reach the tournament that will be played this summer in North America. Can Northern Ireland stop them? Let's break down the match and find the best betting option. 

Italy vs Northern Ireland Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Northern Ireland

    0 : 0

    Italy

    WC Qualification Europe

  2. Italy

    2 : 0

    Northern Ireland

    WC Qualification Europe

  3. Italy

    3 : 0

    Northern Ireland

    Euro Qualification

  4. Northern Ireland

    0 : 0

    Italy

    Euro Qualification

  5. Italy

    3 : 0

    Northern Ireland

    Friendly International

H2H textItaly won four of the last six H2H matches against Northern Ireland, while two games ended in draws. The teams last met in 2021, when it was 0-0 in Belfast. Also, it is worth mentioning that Italy won all five encounters with Northern Ireland at home. 

Italy

Italy team overview

Italy lifted the World Cup title four times, but they shockingly missed the previous two tournaments. In the upcoming days, enormous pressure will be on the head coach, Gennaro Gattuso, and his players, as any defeat will be a huge disappointment. Italy ended the group phase of the qualifications with six wins, but also with two defeats against the perfect Norway. In the most recent outing, they lost 4-1 to Norway at San Siro. Azzurri even had the lead at halftime, but the guests' outstanding second half left the hosts empty-handed.

Italy's head coach, Gennaro Gattuso, admitted that they are nervous ahead of the deciding qualification matches. He said, "It's undeniable that there's nervousness. Only someone without blood running through their veins wouldn't feel it. But we need to do a good job of transmitting a lot of positivity."

Italy have some problems with injuries. Federico Chiesa has already left the team's camp, while Gianluca Scamacca, Alessandro Bastoni, Gianluca Mancini, Sandro Tonali, and Riccardo Calafiori are questionable for Thursday's game.

Last matches of Italy

  1. Italy

    1 : 4

    Norway

    WC Qualification Europe

  2. Moldova

    0 : 2

    Italy

    WC Qualification Europe

  3. Italy

    3 : 0

    Israel

    WC Qualification Europe

  4. Israel

    4 : 5

    Italy

    WC Qualification Europe

  5. Italy

    5 : 0

    Estonia

    WC Qualification Europe

Italy lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gianluigi Donnarumma

Defenders

  • 4

    Alessandro Buongiorno

  • 21

    Alessandro Bastoni

  • 13

    Riccardo Calafiori

Midfielders

  • 2

    Marco Palestra

  • 18

    Nicolo Barella

  • 8

    Sandro Tonali

  • 5

    Manuel Locatelli

  • 3

    Federico Dimarco

Forwards

  • 15

    Pio Esposito

  • 11

    Moise Kean

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland team overview

Northern Ireland have not appeared at the World Cup since 1986. In the group phase of the qualifications, they finished third but will get a chance in the playoffs via the Nations League. However, Northern Ireland's recent form and only two victories in the last five matches don't provide a lot of confidence that they can win in Italy and after that against Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the previous game, Northern Ireland won 1-0 at home against Luxembourg.

Northern Ireland's manager, Michael O'Neill, is realistic that Italy are a big favorite on Thursday night, but he still expects a lot from his team. O'Neill commented, "We're going to have to step up. If you look at our squad, there are 13 players in the Championship. There are four at Premier League clubs, and the rest are in League One or playing their football elsewhere. So, it is a big step up for us. But it's a step up we've made in the past. I think we made it in the Germany game, albeit we didn't get the results that we felt we maybe could have done. We have to try and make that step up again."

Northern Ireland will be without Liverpool's Conor Bradley, but also Sunderland's defender Dan Ballard. Both players are huge misses, and it is a big problem with Michael O'Neill.

Last matches of Northern Ireland

  1. Northern Ireland

    1 : 0

    Luxembourg

    WC Qualification Europe

  2. Slovakia

    1 : 0

    Northern Ireland

    WC Qualification Europe

  3. Northern Ireland

    0 : 1

    Germany

    WC Qualification Europe

  4. Northern Ireland

    2 : 0

    Slovakia

    WC Qualification Europe

  5. Germany

    3 : 1

    Northern Ireland

    WC Qualification Europe

Northern Ireland lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Bailey Peacock-Farrell

Defenders

  • 18

    Terry Devlin

  • 13

    Ruairi McConville

  • 17

    Paddy McNair

  • 22

    Ciaron Brown

  • 5

    Trai Hume

Midfielders

  • 19

    Shea Charles

  • 15

    Justin Devenny

  • 14

    Isaac Price

Forwards

  • 8

    Callum Marshall

  • 9

    Dion Charles

Prediction

Italy won six of the last seven matches. On the other hand, Northern Ireland have had big problems on the road lately, with four defeats in the last five games. Also, Italy won all five matches at home against Northern Ireland. We should expect Azzurri to win and cover the AH -1.5 spread on Thursday night. 

3 Reasons why Italy should win and cover AH -1.5 spread in this match

  1. Italy won six of the last seven matches
  2. Northern Ireland lost in four of the previous five road games
  3. Italy won all five H2H matches against Northern Ireland at home

Main prediction Italy - Northern Ireland

AH1 (-1.5)

Updated

clock
winrate

52% winrate

wins

2 wins in a row

During 15 years of betting, Nemanja gradually improved his skills to help others bet wisely. He's been playing basketball on a youth level, but is interested basically in every sport, especially football and tennis.

Best Odds:

22bet

1.90

Bet here

Italy vs Northern Ireland – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the DAZN channel.

? How much was the average xG for Italy in the qualifications?

The average xG for Italy in the World Cup qualifications was 2.32.

? How much was the average xG for Northern Ireland in the qualifications?

The average xG for Northern Ireland in the World Cup qualifications was 1.07.