Italy vs Estonia prediction 05.09.2025 | World Cup 2026 Qualification

Italy

Italy

Kick off:

Date:

Estonia

Estonia

1

1.08

X

14.80

2

49.00

  • Competition: World Cup 2026 Qualification - Europe
  • Date: 5th September, 2025
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CEST
  • Venue: Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Italy are desperate to improve their position in the Group I standings of the World Cup 2026 Qualification, as they host Estonia at the Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia on Friday. For Italy, this will only be their third appearance in the qualifying campaign, whereas Estonia will play their fifth match on Friday.

Italy vs Estonia Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Italy

    4 : 0

    Estonia

    Friendly International

  2. Italy

    3 : 0

    Estonia

    Euro Qualification

  3. Estonia

    1 : 2

    Italy

    Euro Qualification

This will be the fourth H2H meeting between Italy and Estonia in the last 15 years or so. Squadra Azzurra have claimed all three wins so far - the most recent one came in a friendly game in 2020, which the Italians claimed in a convincing style by winning 4-0.

Italy

Italy team overview

Italy came late to the World Cup 2026 Qualification party, as they were involved in the UEFA Nations League knockout matches back in March. Gennaro Gattuso’s men began the qualifying campaign with the trip to Norway, which did not end well - the four-time World Cup winners were badly beaten by Norway 3-0 and are in severe danger of missing out on the direct qualification route to the tournament that will take place next summer. In the second group match, however, Italy did redeem themselves with a comfortable 2-0 win over Moldova.

In the Squadra Azzurra team camp, no major injuries are reported for this fixture. Only Moise Kean is out with a thigh injury and will miss the qualifiers, but he is not listed as a major absentee given his status.

Last matches of Italy

  1. Italy

    2 : 0

    Moldova

    WC Qualification Europe

  2. Norway

    3 : 0

    Italy

    WC Qualification Europe

  3. Germany

    3 : 3

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Italy

    1 : 2

    Germany

    UEFA Nations League

  5. Italy

    1 : 3

    France

    UEFA Nations League

Italy lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gianluigi Donnarumma

Defenders

  • 22

    Giovanni Di Lorenzo

  • 95

    Alessandro Bastoni

  • 23

    Gianluca Mancini

  • 33

    Riccardo Calafiori

  • 32

    Federico Dimarco

Midfielders

  • 18

    Nicolò Barella

  • 4

    Samuele Ricci

  • 16

    Davide Frattesi

Forwards

  • 9

    Mateo Retegui

  • 10

    Giacomo Raspadori

Estonia

Estonia team overview

Estonia’s journey to the World Cup 2026 final edition has not been the most encouraging - Jurgen Henn’s men have only picked up three points from the possible 12 in the first four matches. After suffering a 2-1 defeat against Israel on the opening matchday, the Estonians claimed their first win in Round 2 by defeating Moldova 3-2. Unfortunately, two more losses followed, as they suffered yet another defeat to Israel (3-1) and a few days later in the rainy evening in Tallinn were punished by the unstoppable Erling Haaland and his Norway side (lost 1-0).

Kevor Palumets and Markus Soomets - who were both sent off in the games against Israel and Moldova - are no longer suspended and will be able to feature on Friday.

Last matches of Estonia

  1. Estonia

    0 : 1

    Norway

    WC Qualification Europe

  2. Estonia

    1 : 3

    Israel

    WC Qualification Europe

  3. Moldova

    2 : 3

    Estonia

    WC Qualification Europe

  4. Israel

    2 : 1

    Estonia

    WC Qualification Europe

  5. Slovakia

    1 : 0

    Estonia

    UEFA Nations League

Estonia lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Karl Hein

Defenders

  • 18

    Michael Schjonning-Larsen

  • 13

    Maksim Paskotsi

  • 2

    Märten Kuusk

  • 3

    Joseph Saliste

Midfielders

  • 4

    Mattias Käit

  • 10

    Kevor Palumets

  • 5

    Rocco Robert Shein

  • 23

    Vlasiy Sinyavskiy

Forwards

  • 14

    Patrik Kristal

  • 15

    Rauno Sappinen

Prediction

Italy head into their second home match of the World Cup 2026 Qualification as clear favorites. They have the home advantage, an experienced squad with strong tactical ideas under Gattuso, and considering Estonia’s ongoing struggles, collecting only three points from the possible 12 in their first four qualifying games, there is only one possible winner on Friday. What’s more, Squadra Azzurra have only lost once in the last nine matches on home soil and with Estonia failing to score in three of their last five away matches across all competitions, we expect a firm win like 3-0 or 2-0 (BTTS - NO).

Three reasons we expect BTTS - NO

  1. Estonia failed to score against Norway, a side considered to be of a similar pedigree to Italy.

  2. Outside of World Cup qualifiers, Estonia had failed to score in five of their last six UEFA Nations League matches.

  3. They have also failed to score in three of their last five away games across all competitions.

Main prediction Italy - Estonia

Both Teams to Score - NO

Updated

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Italy vs Estonia standings in WC Qualification Europe

Group I P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Norway 4 4 0 0 13 - 2 +11 12
2 Israel 3 2 0 1 7 - 6 +1 6
3 Italy 2 1 0 1 2 - 3 -1 3
4 Estonia 4 1 0 3 5 - 8 -3 3
5 Moldova 3 0 0 3 2 - 10 -8 0

Italy vs Estonia – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can watch Italy take on Estonia on the Sofascore app.

? What is the average number of corners Italy have won in the World Cup 2026 Qualification season?

5.8

? What is the average number of corners Estonia have won in the World Cup 2026 Qualification season?

5.4