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Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction 11.01.2026 | Serie A

Fiorentina

Fiorentina

Kick off:

Date:

AC Milan

AC Milan

1

3.82

X

3.48

2

2.15

  • Competition: Serie A
  • Date: Sunday, 11th January 2026
  • Kickoff: 14:00 UK / 15:00 CET
  • Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Two teams in completely different positions, Fiorentina and AC Milan, will meet on Sunday afternoon in a potentially very intriguing tie. The team from Florence has improved in recent weeks and could be very tough for guests who struggled for consistency in the previous weeks. Can Fiorentina hurt AC Milan's scudetto chances? Let's break down the match and find the best betting option. 

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. AC Milan

    2 : 1

    Fiorentina

    Serie A

  2. AC Milan

    2 : 2

    Fiorentina

    Serie A

  3. Fiorentina

    2 : 1

    AC Milan

    Serie A

  4. Fiorentina

    1 : 2

    AC Milan

    Serie A

  5. AC Milan

    1 : 0

    Fiorentina

    Serie A

  6. Fiorentina

    2 : 1

    AC Milan

    Serie A

AC Milan are usually better than Fiorentina, having won five of the last eight H2H matches. La Viola won two games during the span, while one ended in a draw. The only meeting this season between the two teams was in October when AC Milan won 2-1. 

Fiorentina

Fiorentina team overview

Fiorentina are terrible this season. They secured their first victory in the campaign only a few weeks ago and will need to have a much better second half of the season to fulfill at least some goals for the 2025/26 season. However, things seem significantly brighter lately as Fiorentina have lost only one of the previous four games. In the most recent outing, Paolo Vanoli's team played 2-2 on the road against Lazio. The home side ended with an xG of 2.73, while the guests had only 1.72, but Fiorentina defended well and secured a valuable point. 

Fiorentina are active in the transfer market. After acquiring Manor Solomon, they also added Marco Bresciani on loan from Atalanta. The midfielder appeared in only nine Serie A matches this season. 

Tariq Lamptey is injured and will not play on Sunday against AC Milan. Also, Edin Dzeko, Jacopo Fazzini, Amir Richardson, and Mattia Viti are questionable, and their status will be clearer closer to the kickoff. 

Last matches of Fiorentina

  1. Lazio

    2 : 2

    Fiorentina

    Serie A

  2. Fiorentina

    1 : 0

    Cremonese

    Serie A

  3. Parma

    1 : 0

    Fiorentina

    Serie A

  4. Fiorentina

    5 : 1

    Udinese

    Serie A

  5. Lausanne Sport

    1 : 0

    Fiorentina

    Europa Conference League

Fiorentina lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 43

    David de Gea

Defenders

  • 2

    Dodo

  • 15

    Pietro Comuzzo

  • 5

    Marin Pongracic

  • 21

    Robin Gosens

Midfielders

  • 8

    Rolando Mandragora

  • 44

    Nicolo Fagioli

  • 27

    Cher Ndour

Forwards

  • 65

    Fabiano Parisi

  • 91

    Roberto Piccoli

  • 10

    Albert Gudmundsson

AC Milan

AC Milan team overview

After only a Serie A mid-table team last season, AC Milan returned to the title race. They are three points behind league leader Inter Milan and hope to win their first scudetto since 2022. AC Milan are unbeaten in their last three matches. However, their previous game, a disappointing 1-1 home draw against Genoa, left fans and pundits far from satisfied. The hosts could easily have left empty-handed, but the guests' Nicolae Stanciu missed a penalty in stoppage time at the end of the second half.

AC Milan's head coach, Massimiliano Allegri, was obviously disappointed with one point against Genoa. He said, "It's a lesson in maturity if we want to achieve our goal, which is to finish in the top four. We have to improve. We didn't have enough patience, we were too hasty, and haste leads nowhere."

Santiago Gimenez and Christopher Nkunku are injured and will not travel to Florence this weekend.

Last matches of AC Milan

  1. AC Milan

    1 : 1

    Genoa

    Serie A

  2. Cagliari

    0 : 1

    AC Milan

    Serie A

  3. AC Milan

    3 : 0

    Hellas Verona

    Serie A

  4. Napoli

    2 : 0

    AC Milan

    Super Cup

  5. AC Milan

    2 : 2

    Sassuolo

    Serie A

AC Milan lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 16

    Mike Maignan

Defenders

  • 31

    Strahinja Pavlovic

  • 23

    Fikayo Tomori

  • 46

    Matteo Gabbia

Midfielders

  • 56

    Alexis Saelemaekers

  • 19

    Youssouf Fofana

  • 12

    Adrien Rabiot

  • 14

    Luka Modric

  • 33

    Davide Bartesaghi

Forwards

  • 10

    Rafael Leao

  • 11

    Christian Pulisic

Prediction

The biggest improvement for Fiorentina in the last few weeks was their defense. They conceded only four goals in the previous four matches. On the other hand, AC Milan allowed only one goal in the last three games. We shouldn't expect more than two goals in the upcoming clash. 

3 Reasons why we shouldn't expect more than two goals in this match

  1. Fiorentina conceded four goals in the last four matches
  2. There were two or fewer goals in two of the previous three Fiorentina games
  3. AC Milan allowed only one goal in the last two matches

Main prediction Fiorentina - AC Milan

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

53% winrate

wins

4 wins in a row

During 15 years of betting, Nemanja gradually improved his skills to help others bet wisely. He's been playing basketball on a youth level, but is interested basically in every sport, especially football and tennis.

Best Odds:

22bet

1.88

Bet here

Fiorentina vs AC Milan standings in Serie A

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Inter 18 14 0 4 40 - 15 +25 42
2 AC Milan 18 11 6 1 29 - 14 +15 39
3 Roma 20 13 0 7 24 - 12 +12 39
4 Napoli 18 12 2 4 28 - 15 +13 38
5 Juventus 19 10 6 3 27 - 16 +11 36
6 Como 19 9 7 3 27 - 13 +14 34
7 Atalanta 20 8 7 5 25 - 19 +6 31
8 Bologna 19 7 6 6 26 - 20 +6 27
9 Udinese 20 7 5 8 22 - 32 -10 26
10 Lazio 19 6 7 6 20 - 16 +4 25
11 Torino 20 6 5 9 21 - 32 -11 23
12 Sassuolo 20 6 5 9 23 - 27 -4 23
13 Cremonese 19 5 7 7 20 - 23 -3 22
14 Cagliari 19 4 7 8 21 - 27 -6 19
15 Parma 18 4 6 8 12 - 21 -9 18
16 Lecce 18 4 5 9 12 - 25 -13 17
17 Genoa 19 3 7 9 19 - 29 -10 16
18 Hellas Verona 18 2 7 9 15 - 30 -15 13
19 Pisa 20 1 10 9 15 - 30 -15 13
20 Fiorentina 19 2 7 10 20 - 30 -10 13

Fiorentina vs AC Milan – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Fiorentina?

The average xG for Fiorentina in Serie A this season is 1.39.

? How much is the average xG for AC Milan this season?

The average xG for AC Milan in Serie A this season is 1.60.