Birmingham City vs Leeds United prediction 15.02.2026 | FA Cup

Birmingham have found the FA Cup fourth round to be a ceiling in recent years. Three straight eliminations at this stage tells its own story. However, this season feels different. The 3-2 win over Cambridge had intent about it. Not perfect, but assertive.

Chris Davies’ men are unbeaten in eight matches across competitions. That kind of run builds belief. At home, results have been steady rather than spectacular. Two wins from the last four at St. Andrew’s, though only one clean sheet in the last nine home games.

Paik Seung-ho suffered a shoulder injury against West Brom and was replaced after 15 minutes. Tommy Doyle stepped in and could start alongside Jay Stansfield, who has 14 direct goal contributions this season. Ethan Laird remains sidelined with a long term hamstring issue.

Leeds returned to the Premier League in emphatic fashion, winning the Championship with 100 points. Promotion often brings optimism. Survival, though, is a different test. A six point cushion above the relegation zone is decent, not comfortable.

Daniel Farke’s side showed character in a 2-2 comeback against Chelsea, after trailing by two goals. That followed a 3-1 win over Forest. Momentum, perhaps. Yet away form continues to nag. One win in the last 11 road games is not the profile of a dominant traveller.

Lukas Nmecha, with six goals this season, should lead the line. Brenden Aaronson adds energy and four goals of his own. Anton Stach and Pascal Struijk miss out with hip issues, limiting defensive options. No suspensions, which at least simplifies selection.