Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction 22.03.2026 | EFL Cup
Arsenal
Kick off:
Date:
Manchester City
1
2.43
X
3.31
2
3.32
Contents
- Competition: EFL Cup, Final
- Date: Sunday, 22nd March, 2026
- Kickoff: 16:30 UK / 17:30 CET
- Venue: Wembley Stadium (London)
The first title of the season in England is on the line as the two best teams in the country, Arsenal and Manchester City, face off in the EFL Cup Finals at Wembley Stadium. Arsenal are coming into the game in much better form, having secured a Champions League quarter-final spot by eliminating Bayer Leverkusen. Meanwhile, Manchester City suffered elimination from the Champions League by Real Madrid and are having one of its worst stretches of the season.
Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for the ELF Cup Finals.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Arsenal
1 : 1
Manchester City
Premier League
-
Arsenal
5 : 1
Manchester City
Premier League
-
Manchester City
2 : 2
Arsenal
Premier League
-
Manchester City
0 : 0
Arsenal
Premier League
-
Arsenal
1 : 0
Manchester City
Premier League
-
Arsenal
1 : 1
Manchester City
Community Shield
In the first H2H game this season, we saw a 1:1 draw. Interestingly, despite Manchester City having better recent seasons, Arsenal were better in H2H duels. In the past six duels, Arsenal won three times (once after penalties), and the remaining three matches ended in draws.
Regarding the number of goals, two of the past six H2H games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in four of the past six.
Arsenal team overview
For the past three seasons, Arsenal finished 2nd, twice behind Manchester City and once behind Liverpool. However, it seems this is finally Arsenal's year as they are in the top spot with 70 points - nine points above Manchester City, although with one game played more. The bookies believe in the Gunners, offering the odds of only 1.1 for them winning the title.
Besides their strong Premier League campaign, the Gunners reached the Champions League and the FA Cup Quarter-Finals. They are in play for a quadruple this year, and the bookies offer odds around 10.0 on it happening, which is about a 10% chance.
In the previous game against Bayer Leverkusen, Eberechi Eze suffered an injury and had to leave the field after 69 minutes. However, it seems the injury isn't too serious, and the 27-year-old should be ready for Manchester City. Mikel Merino should be the only player definitely out with an injury, while Martin Odegaard and Jurrien Timber are listed as questionable.
Last matches of Arsenal
-
Arsenal
2 : 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Champions League
-
Arsenal
2 : 0
Everton
Premier League
-
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1
Arsenal
Champions League
-
Mansfield Town
1 : 2
Arsenal
FA Cup
-
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 : 1
Arsenal
Premier League
Arsenal lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
David Raya
Defenders
-
4
Ben White
-
2
William Saliba
-
6
Gabriel
-
5
Piero Hincapié
Midfielders
-
36
Martín Zubimendi
-
10
Eberechi Eze
-
41
Declan Rice
Forwards
-
7
Bukayo Saka
-
14
Viktor Gyökeres
-
19
Leandro Trossard
Manchester City team overview
Manchester City's season has been pretty underwhelming, at least by their standards. With the elimination from the Champions League by Real Madrid and the title slowly slipping away, their best chance of winning the title is through the Cups (FA and EFL). However, they are coming to the EFL Cup in pretty bad form, and there is a sense that something is off with the Citizens.
For the EFL Cup finals, coach Guardiola should have almost the entire squad available. Only Josko Gvardiol should be out with his long-term injury.
In recent days, the media asked Pep Guardiola whether he will be the coach at City next season. The coach did not give a straightforward answer and said he would decide after the EFL Cup finals. Many football experts believe his time at City is over, and several big names are linked as possible replacements - Enzo Maresca, Luis Enrique, Xabi Alonso, and Vincent Kompany.
Last matches of Manchester City
-
Manchester City
1 : 2
Real Madrid
Champions League
-
West Ham United
1 : 1
Manchester City
Premier League
-
Real Madrid
3 : 0
Manchester City
Champions League
-
Newcastle United
1 : 3
Manchester City
FA Cup
-
Manchester City
2 : 2
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
Manchester City lineup
Goalkeeper
-
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Defenders
-
27
Matheus Nunes
-
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
-
3
Rúben Dias
-
33
Nico O'Reilly
Midfielders
-
20
Bernardo Silva
-
4
Tijjani Reijnders
-
16
Rodri
Forwards
-
42
Antoine Semenyo
-
9
Erling Haaland
-
11
Jérémy Doku
Prediction
Arsenal went under 2.5 goals in four of the past five games across competitions. The only match they went over the line was against Mansfield in the FA Cup when they heavily rotated the squad. The Gunners really excelled defensively in recent matches, keeping clean sheets in three of those five games, and we believe they should continue to perform so well defensively.
Meanwhile, Manchester City had their problems on the offensive end, scoring two goals in the past three games. Yes, two of those matches were against Real Madrid, but they did not excel in the West Ham game either.
Moreover, the first H2H game this season ended in a 1:1 draw. Considering all the above and with the title on the line, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this EFL Cup final.
4 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals
- Arsenal went under 2.5 goals in the past three games
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in back-to-back games against Bayer Leverkusen and Everton
- Manchester City scored two goals in the past three games
- The first H2H game ended with fewer than three goals (1:1 draw)
Main prediction Arsenal - Manchester City
Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds:
1xBet
1.89
