Contents
- Competition: Serie A
- Date: Sunday, 8th March, 2026
- Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)
On Sunday evening, the 246th Derby della Madonnina will take place between AC Milan and Inter. While these duels always have significant value, this particular one could also decide the Serie A champions. At the moment, Inter are ten points ahead, and a potential win here would put them in a superb position to win the Scudetto.
Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Serie A tie.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Inter Milan
0 : 1
AC Milan
Serie A
-
AC Milan
1 : 1
Inter Milan
Coppa Italia
-
AC Milan
1 : 1
Inter Milan
Serie A
-
Inter Milan
2 : 3
AC Milan
Super Cup
-
Inter Milan
1 : 2
AC Milan
Serie A
-
AC Milan
1 : 2
Inter Milan
Serie A
In the first H2H game this season, AC Milan won 1:0. Interestingly, despite Inter having a lot more success in recent years, AC Milan were much better in H2H duels. In the past six games, AC Milan won three and the remaining three matches finished as draws. The last time Inter beat the city rival was in April 2024, almost two years ago.
Regarding the number of goals, three of the past six H2H games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in four of those six games.
AC Milan team overview
AC Milan came into this season after a terrible last season, when they even failed to secure a place in Europe. This year, the Rossoneri are doing much better. Even though they are ten points behind Inter in the league table, they are still averaging 2.11 points per game. If we acknowledge that Napoli won the title last year with an average of 2.16, we can safely say they are doing well. Still, in order to have some chance of catching up with Inter, the Rossoneri have to win this match.
After a 2:0 win over Cremonese, coach Massimiliano Allegri spoke to the media. He said it was important to win the game and to erase the loss against Parma in the game before. "In the first 20 minutes, we were a little tense, then Cremonese dropped off, and we improved," the coach added. The coach was happy with the victory but said they have to stay alert because bigger matches are ahead of them.
Last matches of AC Milan
-
Cremonese
0 : 2
AC Milan
Serie A
-
AC Milan
0 : 1
Parma
Serie A
-
AC Milan
1 : 1
Como
Serie A
-
Pisa
1 : 2
AC Milan
Serie A
-
Bologna
0 : 3
AC Milan
Serie A
AC Milan lineup
Goalkeeper
-
16
Mike Maignan
Defenders
-
5
Koni De Winter
-
23
Fikayo Tomori
-
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Midfielders
-
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
-
19
Youssouf Fofana
-
12
Adrien Rabiot
-
14
Luka Modrić
-
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Forwards
-
10
Rafael Leão
-
11
Christian Pulisic
Inter team overview
Inter's excellent season was spoiled by an unexpected opponent, as Bodo/Glimt eliminated them from the Champions League 1/16 Finals. The Norwegian team won both games (2:1 and 3:1), creating one of the biggest upsets in modern football. Even though they are dominating Serie A and have a 10-point advantage, they also had an underwhelming performance in the Coppa Italia semi-finals, drawing 0:0 with Como. Still, they rotated the squad a bit, which could be a reason for their somewhat poor performance.
After a goalless draw with Como, coach Cristian Chivu spoke to the media. He said it wasn't an Inter-like game, saying they had to adapt to Como's defensive shape, which sometimes switched to five at the back. The coach also said they had to adjust tactics due to having only two available strikers. Both Lautaro Martinez and Ange-Yoan Bonny missed the Como game and will most likely remain sidelined for the Derby della Madonnina as well.
Last matches of Inter Milan
-
Como
0 : 0
Inter Milan
Coppa Italia
-
Inter Milan
2 : 0
Genoa
Serie A
-
Inter Milan
1 : 2
Bodo/Glimt
Champions League
-
Lecce
0 : 2
Inter Milan
Serie A
-
Bodo/Glimt
3 : 1
Inter Milan
Champions League
Inter Milan lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Yann Sommer
Defenders
-
25
Manuel Akanji
-
31
Yann Bisseck
-
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Midfielders
-
36
Matteo Darmian
-
23
Nicolò Barella
-
20
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
-
8
Petar Sučić
-
32
Federico Dimarco
Forwards
-
11
Luis Henrique
-
9
Marcus Thuram
Prediction
AC Milan have gone under 2.5 goals in the past three games. Also, with 20 conceded goals in 27 rounds, the Rossoneri have the second-best defense in the Serie A, only behind AS Roma. Moreover, against the top-four teams, AC Milan played five games and scored just five goals, which is well below their season average of 1.6 goals per game.
Nerazzurri have been around AC Milan's level defensively, but were a lot better on the offensive end, scoring 21 goals more! However, they are in poor momentum, having won just two of the past five games and scoring six goals. For this game, they will miss their best striker, Lautaro Martinez, and Ange-Yoan Bonny, and those absences will undoubtedly force them to play a more defensive-oriented game.
Three of the past four H2H games ended with fewer than three goals. Considering the trend in the previous games and all the above, an under 2.5 goals seems like the best option for this Serie A tie.
5 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals
- AC Milan scored three goals in the past three matches and were under 2.5 goals in those matches
- AC Milan scored five goals in five games against the top-four teams in Serie A
- Inter should miss their best striker, Lautaro Martinez
- Inter scored six goals in the past five games
- Three of the past four H2H games ended with fewer than three goals
Main prediction AC Milan - Inter Milan
Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds:
AC Milan vs Inter Milan standings in Serie A
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 27 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 64 - 21 | +43 | 67 |
| 2 | AC Milan | 27 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 43 - 20 | +23 | 57 |
| 3 | Napoli | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 43 - 29 | +14 | 56 |
| 4 | Roma | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 37 - 19 | +18 | 51 |
| 5 | Como | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 44 - 20 | +24 | 48 |
| 6 | Juventus | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 46 - 28 | +18 | 47 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 37 - 24 | +13 | 45 |
| 8 | Bologna | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 36 - 32 | +4 | 39 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 34 - 36 | -2 | 38 |
| 10 | Udinese | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31 - 39 | -8 | 35 |
| 11 | Lazio | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 26 - 27 | -1 | 34 |
| 12 | Parma | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 20 - 32 | -12 | 33 |
| 13 | Cagliari | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 29 - 36 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Torino | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 28 - 49 | -21 | 30 |
| 15 | Genoa | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 32 - 39 | -7 | 27 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 21 - 38 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 30 - 42 | -12 | 24 |
| 18 | Lecce | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 18 - 36 | -18 | 24 |
| 19 | Pisa | 27 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 20 - 44 | -24 | 15 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 27 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 20 - 48 | -28 | 15 |