Manchester City vs Newcastle United Prediction 04.02.2026 | EFL Cup

Pep Guardiola’s pursuit of a record-extending ninth EFL Cup crown is entering a decisive stage, but the Catalan mastermind finds Manchester City dealing with an uncharacteristic spell of turbulence ahead of Wednesday’s second-leg showdown.

Despite carrying a healthy two-goal cushion from the first leg at St James’ Park three weeks ago, where strikes from Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki put them firmly in control, the Citizens return to cup duty still licking their wounds after a frustrating 2-2 draw away at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

That stumble dealt a significant blow to City’s Premier League title ambitions, not only because they squandered a two-goal first-half lead, but also because it allowed table-toppers Arsenal to open up a potentially damaging six-point gap at the summit.

Guardiola’s biggest concern, however, remains a defensive crisis that shows no signs of easing. With Ruben Dias, Joško Gvardiol, and John Stones all confirmed absentees, the City boss may be forced to lean heavily on winter arrival Marc Guehi to anchor a patched-up back line in what promises to be another intense battle with the Magpies.

The reigning Carabao Cup holders Newcastle United head to the Etihad Stadium for a daunting assignment, with their backs firmly against the wall as they attempt to overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit and keep alive their dream of back-to-back Wembley glory.

Eddie Howe’s men, who famously ended a 70-year domestic trophy drought in this competition last season, now find themselves in an uncomfortable position after a turbulent start to 2026 has placed their title defence under serious threat.

A humiliating 4-1 collapse at Anfield against a ruthless Liverpool side over the weekend exposed a worrying lack of resistance and extended their winless run to three matches (D1 L2). As a result, the Magpies may need a touch of fortune — and a performance of historic proportions — to trouble a Manchester City team that has looked almost untouchable on home soil this term.

To make matters worse, Newcastle’s task has been complicated by a growing injury crisis at the worst possible time. Influential figures such as Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, and Sven Botman are expected to miss out, while the fitness of midfield lynchpins Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton remains uncertain ahead of this decisive second leg.