Hamburger SV vs St Pauli prediction 29.08.2025 | Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
Kick off:
Date:
St Pauli
1
2.45
X
3.48
2
3.12
Contents
- Competition: Bundesliga
- Date: Friday, 29th August, 2025
- Kickoff: 19:30 UK / 20:30 CEST
- Venue: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
Following their draws in the Bundesliga opening round, Hamburg SV and St. Pauli will meet in the popular city derby (Hamburger Stadtderby) at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.
The bookies see both teams as potential relegation candidates, and while the season is still young, this city derby could prove crucial in the battle for survival.
Hamburger SV vs St Pauli Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Hamburger SV
1 : 0
St Pauli
2. Bundesliga
-
St Pauli
2 : 2
Hamburger SV
2. Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
4 : 3
St Pauli
2. Bundesliga
-
St Pauli
3 : 0
Hamburger SV
2. Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
2 : 1
St Pauli
2. Bundesliga
-
St Pauli
3 : 2
Hamburger SV
2. Bundesliga
In the previous five h2h games, HSV were a much more successful team. They won three times, and St. Pauli won just once.
When it comes to the number of goals, five of the last six games ended with over 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in four out of those six matches - 67%
Hamburger SV team overview
HSV, a six-time Bundesliga winner and one of the most popular teams in Germany, had a rough period behind it. In the 2017/18 season, they suffered an unexpected relegation - their first ever in a 137-year-old history. Despite constantly being among the promotion contenders in the following seasons, they finally secured a return to the Bundesliga in 2024/25.
During the offseason, the club was active, but did not spend too much money, and we doubt they have gotten significantly better. This season, HSV opened with two draws. The first one was vs Pirmasens in the Cup, where they eventually won after ET, and then drew again against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
After a 0:0 draw in the last game vs Borussia M'Gladbach, coach Merlin Polzin was satisfied. He said they are definitely ready for the Bundesliga challenge and proved that to everyone. "We were very happy with the way we started … I'm very proud of the boys," the coach added.
Last matches of Hamburger SV
-
Pirmasens
0 : 1
Hamburger SV
DFB Pokal
-
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3 : 3
Hamburger SV
2. Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
6 : 1
Ulm
2. Bundesliga
-
Darmstadt 98
0 : 4
Hamburger SV
2. Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
1 : 2
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
Hamburger SV lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Defenders
-
25
Jordan Torunarigha
-
8
Daniel Elfadli
-
17
Warmed Omari
Midfielders
-
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
-
24
Nicolás Capaldo
-
21
Nicolai Remberg
-
28
Miro Muheim
Forwards
-
29
Emir Sahiti
-
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
-
38
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
St Pauli team overview
St. Pauli secured promotion to the Bundesliga in 2023/24 and had a decent last season, finishing 14th - three points away from relegation playout. Despite having a really good offseason result-wise, we believe they will once again be among the relegation candidates.
This year, just like HSV, St. Pauli also opened the season with two draws, at least in regular time. After a goalless draw in the DFB Pokal with Norderstedt, they managed to win after a penalty shootout. However, after that pretty poor performance, they managed to draw with one of the best teams in the league, Borussia Dortmund.
After a 3:3 draw with Borussia Dortmund, coach Alexander Blessin spoke to the media. He was happy with a point and noted that they are still integrating new signings, hoping they will be even better in the upcoming games. However, the coach pivoted his focus to the upcoming game, saying they want to win the derby against HSV.
Last matches of St Pauli
-
Eintracht Norderstedt
2 : 3
St Pauli
DFB Pokal
-
Drochtersen / Assel
1 : 0
St Pauli
Club Friendlies
-
Drochtersen / Assel
1 : 0
St Pauli
Club Friendlies 3
-
St Pauli
0 : 2
Bochum
Bundesliga
-
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2
St Pauli
Bundesliga
St Pauli lineup
Goalkeeper
-
22
Nikola Vasilj
Defenders
-
5
Hauke Wahl
-
25
Adam Dzwigala
-
8
Eric Smith
Midfielders
-
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
-
16
Joel Chima Fujita
-
10
Daniel Sinani
-
6
James Sands
-
23
Louis Oppie
Forwards
-
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
-
27
Andreas Hountondji
Prediction
HSV went under 2.5 goals in both of their games this season. They scored just once in those two matches. Looking further back, we could see them struggling to score even in friendlies. In the last six games, they only scored twice - 0.33 per game. So, we believe they will struggle offensively in this match as well.
On the other hand, St. Pauli had two very different offensive performances. They failed to score vs Norderstedt and then scored three against Borussia Dortmund. However, they were lucky to score, and we do not think they will have too many such games. Last season, St. Pauli were absolutely terrible offensively, scoring just 28 goals in 34 rounds - 0.82 per game. Mostly because of poor offensive performances, they were under 2.5 goals in 24 out of 34 rounds last year (71%) - the most in the Bundesliga.
Considering all the above, an under 2.5 goals should be the safest option for this Bundesliga tie.
3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals
- HSV went under 2.5 goals in both of their games this season, at least in regular time
- Including friendlies, HSV scored one goal in the past four matches
- The last h2h game ended with HSV winning 1:0
Main prediction Hamburger SV - St Pauli
Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds:
Megapari
1.97
Hamburger SV vs St Pauli standings in Bundesliga
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 - 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 - 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 - 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 - 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 - 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Union Berlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 - 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 - 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 - 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | St. Pauli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 - 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hamburger SV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 - 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 - 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 - 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 - 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Heidenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 - 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 - 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Werder Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 - 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 - 6 | -6 | 0 |