Alianza Lima vs Sao Paulo prediction 06.05.2025 | Copa Libertadores

• Competition: Copa Libertadores
• Date: Tuesday, 6th May, 2025
• Kickoff: 23:00 UK / 00:00 CEST
• Venue: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

On the night between Tuesday and Wednesday, Peruan Alianza Lima will welcome Brazilian Sao Paulo in the fourth round of the Copa Libertadores Group phase at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.

Alianza Lima, a 25-time Peruan champion, are not on the desired level as they won their last title back in 2022. This year, "The Blue and White Alliance" had a mediocre bad start in Apertura as they sit in 5th place with 19 points from 10 rounds - four points away from the top spot but with a game played more than the first-placed Universitario de Deportes. However, in the Copa Libertadores, they impressed in the Qualifiers, eliminating one of the greatest clubs in South America, Boca Juniors. Still, they are now third in the group with four points in three rounds and need to win points in this game in order to stay in battle for the next stage of the competition.

Sao Paulo are a stable Brazilian Serie A team for years now. Last year, they finished sixth but could have a much better finish if not for a terrible end of the season. This season, "Tricolor Paulista" are still undefeated in 11 games in all competitions. Still, they could do much better in the Serie A, where they are in 8th place - already five away from the first-placed Flamengo, and with a game played more. Meanwhile, they are doing a great job in the Copa Libertadores considering they are at the top of Group D with seven points in three rounds.

Alianza Lima vs Sao Paulo pick: Under 2.5 goals

Alianza Lima have been pretty inconsistent result-wise in the recent month and a half, and it is very difficult to predict what kind of performance we will get from them. However, they are constantly having trouble with efficiency, considering they scored zero or one goal in three of the last four games and also in seven out of the previous nine. So, we do not expect a too-great offensive performance, especially since they will face a team that allowed just two goals during the last four games.

The Brazilians, meanwhile, mostly play low-scoring games. They were under 2.5 goals in three of the last four matches and were also under the mentioned line in 64% of their games this year. And away from home, that number is even higher, with 80% (four of five matches) finished with fewer than three goals.

These teams met just around a month ago, and we saw a 2:2 draw. However, having watched the game, we can safely say that we could easily see up to two goals. These teams had a combined xG stats of (only) 2.46.

Despite the result in the first game, considering all the above, we firmly believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the best option for this Copa Libertadores tie.