St. Pauli vs Heidenheim prediction 25.08.2024 | Bundesliga

• Competition: Bundesliga
• Date: Sunday, 25th August, 2024
• Kickoff: 16:30 UK / 17:30 CEST
• Venue: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

The wait is finally over. After around three months pause, the Bundesliga is set to restart. In the last game of the first round, newly promoted St. Pauli will welcome Heidenheim at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.

St. Pauli had a historic last season, winning the 2. Bundesliga title and securing promotion after 13 years of waiting. It was a close battle in the end, but after winning four of the last five games, St. Pauli managed to secure the title, leaving the second-placed Holsten Kiel just one point away. Over the summer, they made some moves, but we doubt they improved enough to secure survival. Before the start of the season, the bookies see St. Pauli as the second favorite for relegation, offering odds around 2.7 on that bet.

Heidenheim also had a historic season, securing their first European Qualifiers in the club's history. However, we have to mention they were lucky to secure it because they were tied for 8th place with two other teams (Werder Bremen and Freiburg) but secured Europe due to a better goal difference. Despite heavily rotating the squad, they started their European campaign well, securing a 2:1 win on the road at Göteborg in the first leg of the Conference League Playoff Round. Now they need to finish the job at home in the second leg after the St. Pauli game. The bookies favor them heavily now to secure the group phase. Still, in the Bundesliga, the bookies see them as the third favorite for relegation, only behind Holstein Kiel and St. Pauli.

St. Pauli vs Heidenheim pick: Over 2.5 goals

St. Pauli opened the season poorly as they drew in the regular time of the DFB Pokal against a fourth-tier team, Hallescher. Eventually, they secured a win in the extra time, but two allowed goals are definitely a reason for concern. Now, it is impossible to expect they can keep a clean sheet against Bundesliga teams. However, offensively, they were good throughout the pre-season, scoring at least a goal in all five matches while facing some good teams like Lyon and Atalanta. Also, due to a good offense, St. Pauli were over 2.5 goals in four of five pre-season games.

Heidenheim started the season much better. They won two games - one in the Cup (4:0 against Villingen) and the second in the Conference League (2:1 vs Hacken). They were fantastic throughout the pre-season, winning all seven games. They mostly played poor teams, but a win against Espanol in the last pre-season game is definitely worth mentioning. If we look at all the games played (pre-season included), Heidenheim were over 2.5 goals in eight of nine games!

Considering all the above, an over 2.5 goals bet looks like the safest option for this Bundesliga tie.