Napoli vs Modena prediction 10.08.2024 | Coppa Italia

• Competition: Coppa Italia, 1/32 Finals
• Date: Saturday, 10th August, 2024
• Kickoff: 20:15 UK / 21:15 CEST
• Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Eight days before Serie A starts, Italian teams will face off in the 1/32 Finals of the Coppa Italia. One of the interesting duels will be between Napoli and Modena, a Serie B team. The game will take place at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Naples.

After winning a historic Scudetto in 2022/23, Napoli went through a pretty strange period as their head coach, Luciano Spalletti, left despite winning the title. The Italian coach left due to disagreements with President Aurelio De Laurentiis, and it seems Napoli lost its X factor when that happened. Last year, Napoli finished in a disappointing 10th place, even failing to secure Europe. The impression throughout the season was that they weren't playing as poorly as the results represented and that they would start winning games. Unfortunately for their fans, that did not happen.

Modena had two similar previous seasons, finishing tenth with 47 and 48 points. However, considering they played in Serie D just a few seasons ago, they are probably satisfied with that outcome. Over the Summer, the club was really active, and the impression is that they heavily improved the squad compared to previous seasons. This might be the year when the popular Canaries secure at least a playoff spot.

Napoli vs Modena pick: Over 3.5 goals

Napoli had a poor last season, but the problem wasn't the offense. Napoli scored 55 goals and were among the best teams in that category. In fact, they had the biggest xG in the league at 1.71! And we strongly believe they can score a lot against a Serie B team. The key issue was the defense, considering they kept a clean sheet in 18% of their games (seven of 38).

Modena had a very good preparation period, winning two and drawing once while scoring eight goals. That draw (2:2) was against Cagliari, another Serie A team. So, considering their good form, we wouldn't be surprised if they scored once or twice against struggling Napoli's defense.

Even with all their troubles and poor last season, Napoli are undoubtedly a better team. However, because of their defensive problems from last season, we are hesitant to bet on them to cover a pretty high spread of -2. Instead, we believe that an over 3.5 goals bet is a much safer option for this Coppa Italia game.