Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro prediction 22.05.2024

• Competition: Copa do Brasil, 1/16 Finals, 2nd Leg
• Date: Wednesday, 22nd May, 2024
• Kickoff: 23:00 UTC +1
• Venue: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

On the night between Wednesday and Thursday, a Serie B side, Sport Recife, will face off against Serie A team, Atletico Mineiro, in the second leg of the Copa do Brasil 1/16. The first leg finished with the Atletico MG winning 2:0 at MRV Arena, and the second leg will take place at Arena Pernambuco in São Lourenço da Mata.

After suffering relegation from Serie A in the 2021 season, Sport Recife had two seven-place finishes in Serie B. Still, last year, they were super close to securing promotion, as they were only one point short. This year, the Lions of the North had an excellent start to the season, winning their state league and also having a really good start in the Serie B. Still, after back-to-back losses, they dropped to 3rd place and will try to change that negative momentum with a good performance in the Cup. 

Atletico Mineiro have mostly been among Brazil's best teams in recent years, even winning the title in 2021. This year, like their opponents, Atletico Mineiro started the year by winning their state league. Additionally, they also had a solid start in the Serie A and an excellent one in the Copa Libertadores, where they secured the second stage rather easily. Expectedly, they are a big favorite to advance to the next stage, but they are also the third favorite to win the title, at least according to bookies. Right now, the bookies offer odds of 7.5 for them to win the title, only behind Flamengo (4.5) and Palmeiras (5.9).

Sport Recife vs Atletico Mineiro pick: Under 2.5 goals

Sport Recofe lost back-to-back games vs Ituano and Avai while scoring only one goal. Additionally, in the first leg, we already saw they struggled to create goalscoring opportunities and had only two shots on goal and two off goal. So, scoring against Atletico Mineiro, which had five clean sheers in the last nine games, will surely be a challenge, even at home. 

Atletico Mineiro played mostly low-scoring games lately, as three of their last four matches in all competitions finished with fewer than three goals. Now, in the second leg, we believe they will try to slow the pace of the game and control the possession as they often do, even against much better teams than Sport Recife. 

Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this Cup tie.