Marseille vs Metz prediction 09.02.2024

• Competition: Ligue 1
• Date: Friday, 9th February 2024
• Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CET
• Venue: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

In recent years, Marseille were among the best French teams, constantly securing Europe. However, this season, Les Phocéens are playing a really bad season, at least by their standards. They are only in 8th place with 29 points, three points away from the European spots but 18 away from the 1st-placed PSG. The primary reason for Marseille's poor positioning this season is their awful road record. About ten days ago, Rennes knocked them out of the Cup, and they will not be able to secure Europe that way. So these types of games vs teams from the bottom of the league are a must-win for them to move closer to the European spots. On the other hand, in Europe, Marseille were fine, finishing 2nd in the Europa League Group B and securing the 1/16 finals against Shakhtar Donetsk.

Metz are one of the teams that constantly traveled between Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 in the last several years. Last year, they secured Ligue 1 by finishing 2nd in Ligue 2, but this season, they look like one of the candidates for relegation. They did start the season well, but since the start of December, they have been in terrible form, losing eight in a row in all competitions. Right now, the Maroons are 16th with 16 points but still only three points away from the safe zone. However, at this moment, they look like the worst team in Ligue 1. 

Marseille vs Metz pick: Under 2.5 goals

Marseille are in poor form, winning just once in the last six games. Their only win was in the Cup against a lower-tier team, Thionville. But even against them, they did not impress, winning only 1:0. Les Phocéen's offense has been pretty poor recently, scoring only six goals in the last six games, and because of it, were only once over 2.5 goals during that time. 

Metz are in absolutely terrible form with eight losses in a row (one after penalties in the Cup). They even failed to score in five of those games and will now face the best defensive home team in Ligue 1 in Marseille, which allowed only five goals in ten home Ligue 1 games. Also, with only 17 scored goals in 20 rounds, Metz are the second-worst offensive team in the league, only above the last-placed Clermont. So, it is hard to expect a goal from them in this match.

Considering both teams' poor goalscoring form and everything above, we believe that an under 2.5 goal is the safest bet for this Ligue 1 game.