Italy vs Albania prediction 15.06.2024 UEFA EURO 2024

• Competition: EURO 2024
• Date: Saturday, 15th June, 2024
• Kickoff: 20:00 UTC +1 / 21:00 CEST
• Venue: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

The current EURO champs, Italy, will start the competition against the weakest team in the group against Group B, Albania. The game will take place at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. 

After winning the Euro 2020, Italy experienced a major setback as they failed to qualify for the World Cup. Still, after that big failure, Italy did great in the UEFA Nations League, winning a really tough group with Germany, England, and Hungary. In the end, they finished 3rd in the Playoffs. In the EURO Qualifiers, they barely finished 2nd, on a level with points with Ukraine. Italy lacks the big stars they once had (especially upfront), but they are still among the favorites to win the title. The bookies have them as the sixth favorite, with odds around 15.5 behind teams like England, France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal.

This is only the second time Albania reached EURO, with their first being in 2016, when they finished 3rd in a group with France, Switzerland, and Romania. This time, in EURO Qualifiers, they were super-impressive as they won their group. Yes, it was not a great group, but it was an impressive run regardless. Before the start of the competition, the bookies have Albania as the least likely team to win the title, with the odds set at around 500!

Italy vs Albania pick: Italy to win and cover the -1.5 AH spread

After the EURO Qualifiers, Italy played much better. They won two games against Ecuador and Venezuela, while Albania lost against Chile and Sweden without scoring a goal. 

A big part of Albanian success in the EURO Qualifiers is their dominant home performance, where they haven't allowed a single goal in four games and won ten points! Still, like most Balkan teams away from home, they are not even remotely as good, and we do not believe they can make an upset here. This game will be played on a neutral pitch in Germany, but looking at Albanian road games, we can see they have been disastrous, having won only one game (vs Faroe Islands) in 11 games in all competitions. 

These teams met four times, with Italy winning every time, twice by two or more goals. Italy are a much better team and does great in these types of competitions. So, anything but a big win for Italy would be a massive surprise.