Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Nassr prediction 05.12.2023

• Competition: AFC Champions League
• Date: Tuesday, 5th December 2023
• Kickoff: 16:00 UTC / 17:00 CET
• Venue: Republican central stadium (Dushanbe)

On Tuesday afternoon, Istiqlol Dushanbe will welcome Al Nassr at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe in the last game of the AFC Champions League Group phase, where both teams are without a motive, considering Al Nassr already secured the next stage of the competition. 

Istiqlol Dushanbe have been a dominant force in Tajikistan, winning ten league titles in a row, including this season, where they already secured the title three rounds before the end of the season. However, in the continental competition, expectedly, they are nowhere near as successful. This season, they had very little success in the AFC Champions League as they won just two points in five rounds, and if they fail to win this match against Al Nassr, they will finish the competition as the last-placed team in the group, regardless of the result in the Persepolis vs Al Duhail game. 

Al Nassr are one of the teams from Saudi Arabia that invested a lot of money to bring in high-profile players. Still, since Ronaldo came, Al Nassr won only the Arab Club Champions Cup by beating Al Hilal. And even though Al Nassr are playing relatively well, with the latest loss against Al Hilal, it seems that the domestic league title is slowly slipping away, considering they are already seven points behind Al Hilal with only 15 rounds into the season. Although there is a lot of football to be played, the situation is far from impressive. In the AFC Champions League, Al Nassr easily secured the next phase, and we believe they are one of the primary candidates for the title. 

Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Al Nassr pick: Al Nassr to win and cover the -1 AH spread

Istiqlol Dushanbe are playing well in the domestic league, as they won 13 of 19 games this season - 68%. Still, they are simply not good enough to make some noise in the continental competition. So far, they drew two and lost three in the AFC CL, but the general impression is that they could easily lose all five matches. 

Before the 3:0 loss against Al Hilal, Al Nassr were on a 20-game unbeaten run with 17 wins! Even though losing to a city rival surely hurts, it is not something too embarrassing, considering it occurred at King Fahd International Stadium against one of the best teams in Asia. In the AFC Champions League, Al Nassr won four of five matches, only failing to win against Persepolis (0:0) away from home. However, the primary reason for it is an early red card by Ali Lajami. 

In the previous game, Al Nassr absolutely dominated Istiqlol Dushanbe, winning 3:1 with 80% ball possession and 27 goal attempts, compared to only five goal attempts for the Tajikistan team. Al Nassr are simply a better team, and considering everything above, we expect them to secure another comfortable win.