Bournemouth vs Swansea City prediction 25.01.2024

• Competition: FA Cup, 1/16 - Finals
• Date: Thursday, 25th January 2024
• Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
• Venue: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)

On Thursday evening, a Premier League side, Bournemouth, will welcome a Championship team, Swansea City, in the FA Cup 1/16-Finals at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth).

Last year, Bournemouth finished 15th in the Premier League, only five points away from the danger zone. This year, after the arrival of one of the more respected young coaches, Andoni Iraola, the Cherries had a very poor start and were around the relegation zone for the majority of the season. However, since mid-November, they heavily improved and quickly moved to 12th place. Right now, they are nine points away from the danger zone, and the general impression is that they are much better than the bottom three teams. Considering what we are seeing from them now, we would be very surprised if they got involved in the relegation battle. 

Swansea City are playing its sixth consecutive Championship season, where they managed to reach the playoffs twice. In the last two seasons, they were disappointing, finishing 15th and 10th, and this season isn't looking any better. The Swans are 16th with 33 points from 28 matches - ten points away from the Playoffs. It seems they will once again miss the Playoffs if something doesn't change. Early in the year, the club changed the coach in an attempt to make some changes, but it's too early to tell if a significant shift has occurred under the new coach. 

Bournemouth vs Swansea City pick: Over 2.5 goals

Bournemouth are in excellent form, with seven wins in the last ten games. They only lost games against really good teams (Tottenham and Liverpool). Their offense looked really great in that period, as they scored two or more goals in eight of those ten games. Because of the excellent offense, the Cherries were over 2.5 goals in eight of the last ten games. 

Swansea City are one of the best teams for over 2.5 goals bet in the Championship, and that is especially visible away from home, where we saw three or more goals in 71% of their Championship games. 

Interestingly, these teams already met in the Carabao Cup this year when Bournemouth won 3:2 away from home. Bournemouth are a better team overall and a big favorite in this game. However, there is a big concern they would rotate the squad as they did in the previous FA Cup game vs QPR when they won 3:2. We do not think their offense would struggle if they decide to rotate, but we are not too sure about the defense, especially if we look at that last game against QPR. So, we are much more confident in an over 2.5 goals than in the -1.5/-2 AH bet.