Atletico PR vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction 30.05.2024

• Competition: Copa Sudamericana
• Date: Thursday, 30th May, 2024
• Kickoff: 23:00 UTC +1
• Venue: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

On Thursday evening, Athletico Paranaense and Sportivo Ameliano will face off in the last Copa Sudamericana group phase game, which will decide their faith in the continental competition. 

Athletico Paranaense finished 8th in Serie A last year, missing the Copa Libertadores only due to a worse goal difference. This year, they had a good start as they won their state league in a dominant fashion and are doing great in Serie A as they hold the top spot with 13 points after six rounds. In the Copa Sudamericana, they are doing great as well, and with a potential win or draw, they would secure that 1st place and would avoid playing an additional game in the 1/16 Finals. The popular Rubro-Negro are the second favorite to win the title this year, with the odds of 7.85. Only Internacional have better chances (according to bookmakers), with the odds set at 7.67.

Sportivo Ameliano have been between 6th and 8th place in the Paraguayan Primera Division in recent years. This year, they are on pace for another mid-table finish, holding the 7th place with only 23 points from 20 rounds. In the Copa Sudamericana, they are in 2nd place. Still, a potential loss away from home against the best team in the Group (and possibly in the competition) could result in dropping to 3rd place if Danubio wins at home against Rayo Zuliano, which is a very likely scenario. So, winning at least a point is a must, but that is definitely a tough challenge. 

Athletico PR vs Sportivo Ameliano pick: Athletico PR to win and cover the -1.5 AH spread

Athletico Paranaense is in very good form. They have won three of the last four matches, only losing to Danubio 2:1. However, they were a better team in that match as well and definitely deserved more. At home, Rubo-Negro are doing great and have won eight straight before losing to Danubio. In those eight games, they managed to keep a clean sheet on seven occasions! 

On the other hand, Sportivo Ameliano lost three in a row while scoring only one goal. So, expecting a positive result in this road game is unreal.

In the first h2h game in April, Athletico Paranaense completely dominated and won in Paraguay 4:1. Considering the previous h2h game, the difference in form, and the home pitch advantage, we believe that the Brazilian team will secure a comfortable win and solidify first place in the Group E.