Atletico Madrid vs Valencia prediction 28.01.2024

• Competition: La Liga
• Date: Sunday, 28th January 2024
• Kickoff: 20:00 UTC / 21:00 CET
• Venue: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Since Diego Simeone arrived at Atletico Madrid, Colchoneros were pretty much constantly in the top three teams in Spain, even winning the league title on two occasions. This year, Simeone's squad is slowly losing the race with the top two teams this season, Real Madrid and Girona, and their only goal will be to finish in the top four spots and secure the Champions League next year. Currently, they are 4th with 41 points after 20 rounds. In the UCL, Colchoneros easily secured the knockout phase by finishing first in the group and also did great in the Cup, where they reached the Semi-finals after eliminating Sevilla and Real Madrid in the previous rounds. 

Years when Valencia constantly secured Europe are long over. In the last four seasons, popular Bats were between 9th and 14th place without a real chance of securing Europe. In fact, last year, they barely escaped relegation after finishing just two points away from the danger zone. This season, through the season, they were mediocre, but with four wins in a row, they quickly moved in the standings and are now 7th with 32 points, only three away from the European spots. 

Atletico Madrid vs Valencia pick: Over 2.5 goals

Atletico Madrid have been incredible at Metropolitano Stadium this season, and their road record is the only reason they are not at the top of the league (or at least close to it). At home, Colchoneros are undefeated in 15 games while winning 14 of those 15 games! Their offense have been incredible at home, with 37 scored goals in those 15 matches (2.5 per game), and scoring at least two goals is a very realistic scenario against anyone in the World. Because of their excellent offensive performance, Colchoneros were over 2.5 goals in 11 of 15 games - 73.3%.

Valencia are in excellent form, winning five of the last six games in all competitions. Their offense finally started producing on a regular basis and have scored 11 goals over the previous six matches, so we expect them to score in this match as well. On the other hand, away from home, Valencia are having trouble defensively, and with 19 allowed goals in 11 games, they are among the worst teams in that category. 

In the previous six h2h games, we have seen three or more goals on five occasions. Considering the previous h2h games, both team's good form, and Atletico's offensive potential at Metropolitano Stadium, we expect a game with at least three goals, most likely with both teams scoring.