Arouca vs Porto prediction 12.02.2024

• Competition: Liga Portugal
• Date: Monday, 12th February 2024
• Kickoff: 20:15 UTC / 21:15 CET
• Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Last year, Arouca were excellent, finishing 5th and securing Europa Conference League Qualifiers. This season, they had an atrocious start and were in last place after 12 rounds. Luckily, they started playing much better when they changed the coach and quickly climbed to 8th place. At this moment, they are seven points away from the danger zone, and with three wins in a row, there are definitely reasons to be optimistic before the duel against highly favored Porto. 

FC Porto have been one of the best teams in Portugal throughout history. For the majority of the seasons, they were either the best or the second-best team in Portugal. This season, they are slightly worse, considering they are in third place - six points away from the first-placed Benfica. On the other hand, they did great in the Champions League, reaching the knockout phase, where they will face Arsenal.

Arouca vs Porto pick: Over 2.5 goals

Arouca constantly played high-scoring games and were eight times over 2.5 goals in the last nine matches! Lately, they have been great offensively, scoring nine goals in the last three games. So, I think they could easily score against Porto as well. 

Throughout the season, Porto weren't on an expected level offensively compared to the top two teams (Benfica and Sporting). However, they greatly improved in that department recently, scoring 14 goals in the last five games - 2.8 per game. We believe they are capable of scoring at least a couple of goals, but on the other hand, they haven't been impressive defensively away from home. In 17 road games in all competitions, they had only five clean sheets - 29%.

Considering both team's excellent goalscoring form, we expect a game with at least three goals, most likely with both teams scoring.