América MG vs Avaí prediction 25.06.2024

• Competition: Serie B
• Date: Tuesday, 25th June, 2024
• Kickoff: 23:00 UK
• Venue: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

America MG were relegated from Serie A last year, finishing 20th with only 24 points - an incredible 20 points from the safe zone. After a bad Serie A season, they had a nice run in the Mineiro state league, where they reached the Semi-Finals but lost 3:2 on aggregate to Atletico MG. That was a good sign for the upcoming Serie B season. And indeed, they are doing really well as they are 1st with 21 points - on a level with points with two other teams, Avai and Operario.

Avai is a team that have constantly traveled between Serie A and B in the previous decade. They were relegated in 2022, and even though everyone expected they would contend for promotion last year, they finished 13th, only five points away from the relegation zone. Similarly to America MG, Avai are also doing really well in the Serie B and were solid in the Catarinense state league. Like America MG, they lost in the Semi-Finals, but there is a massive difference in quality between those state leagues (in favor of Mineiro).

America MG vs Avai pick: Under 2.5 goals

America MG have had mixed results lately, winning two and losing two in the last four. They scored just four goals during that four-game stretch, and we cannot say they have had a tough schedule. So, expecting a dominant offensive display against one of the best teams in the league is not very real. Still, America MG have shown they are good at home, especially defensively, where they had three clean sheets in six games.

Avai have been superb defensively in recent matches, keeping a clean sheet in four of the last five. Away from home, they have been great for this type of bet, as four of their five matches ended with fewer than three goals while scoring only three times.

In the last ten h2h games, "only" 50% of the games finished with fewer than three goals. Still, considering both teams' good defensive performances this season and all the above, an under 2.5 goals bet should be the safest option for this Serie B tie.