Sevilla vs Roma prediction 31.05.2023 Europa League Final

• Date: 31/05/2023
• Competition: Europa League Final
• KO: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
• Venue: Puskás Aréna (Budapest)

The first of the European silverware will be handed out this week, with the 2023 Europa League Final taking place on Wednesday as Sevilla and Roma do battle at the magnificent Puskas Arena.

One year on from Eintracht Frankfurt´s penalty-shootout win against a valiant Rangers in Seville, another dramatic contest is expected in Budapest with Europa League specialists Sevilla slight favourites against their Roman counterparts.

However, with Euro trophy expert Jose Mourinho in the Roma dugout, a winner in all five major European finals in his career thus far, this special occasion seems likely to be played on a knife edge, with little to choose between these sides.

Sevilla vs Roma Betting Tips: Under 2.5 goals, Roma to lift the trophy

Major finals such as these are often nervous, tense and low-scoring occasions, and that type of contest seems likely, particularly with Roma expected to deploy a defensive approach against their more fluid Spanish opponents.

Sevilla has a tremendous history in this competition, having claimed the big prize in 2014, 2015 and 2020 when they edged Inter to a famous 3:2 triumph. However, given their opposition here, we expect a less thrilling affair, with chances likely to be at a premium. 

Indeed, while Los Rojiblancos might be specialists in this competition, I Giallorossi boss Mourinho goes in search of a record third victory in the EL with three different clubs after winning with both Porto and Manchester United. The Portuguese serial winner also won the Champions League with Porto and Inter Milan, as well as the Europa Conference League last season with Roma.

However, goals have been in short supply in Roma´s Europa League campaign, with seven of their eight most recent matches seeing under 2.5 goals scored, including a dogged 0:0 draw in Leverkusen to secure their place in this final. While winning few admirers with their defensive approach, Mourinho´s famed “park the bus” routine worked a treat, with Roma emerging as narrow 1:0 winners over the two legs.

Incredibly, Roma failed to score in any of their four away knockout ties, with their best work being done in Rome, where they have won each of their last five EL games (including an extra-time win against Feyenoord). 

Now on neutral territory, it remains doubtful that Roma will get on the front foot, with Sevilla more likely to dictate play from the off. The Andaluscians have been in good form over the past couple of months, with just two defeats in their last 12. Roma have lost four and won just three of their last 12, with eight seeing less than three goals scored.

While Sevilla are a more attack-minded side, five of their seven most recent EL games also saw fewer than three goals scored, and a similarly low-scoring final really ought to be expected in Hungary.

Evenly matched, and with the bookies unable to put much distance between these sides, we expect the 2023 final to go the distance with extra time and penalties, potentially on the cards, as was the case in each of the last two Europa League finals. Given that, our best bet has to be under 2.5 goals, and while Sevilla probably deserves their status as favourites, it´s hard to bet against a Roma side that will be very hard to beat under their infamous Portuguese boss.