Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction 28.04.2024

• Competition: Premier League
• Date: Sunday, 28th April, 2024
• Kickoff: 14:00 UK / 15:00 CEST
• Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

In the 195 North London derby, the top-four chasing Tottenham will welcome the league's leader, Arsenal, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This match is super important for both teams and could change how their seasons go.

Tottenham made massive changes over the Summer, but the situation is unchanged as the Spurs will once again fail to win any trophy. At the start of the season, it seemed they were finally good enough to contend for the title, but after that initial good start, they dropped to 5th place, where they resided for the majority of the season. Right now, they are still 5th, with six points less than 4th placed Aston Villa, but with two games played fewer. Unfortunately for the Spurs, their remaining schedule is challenging, so we do not really believe in their chances of securing the Champions League appearance next season. 

Last year, Arsenal blew the opportunity to win their first Premier League since the 2003/04 season! This year, the Gunners are once again in a good situation. With Liverpool losing the last game vs Everton, the Gunners are now three points above the Reds. However, Manchester City are the biggest threat to Arsenal as they are four points away but with two fewer games played. The Citizens are under pressure to win points, but so are the Gunners, and they cannot afford to drop points here against a city rival.

Tottenham vs Arsenal pick: Under 3.5 goals

Tottenham are coming to this game after a massive 4:0 loss vs Newcastle. However, they have been excellent at home throughout the season, so we are very reluctant to bet on the Gunners' win. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been excellent for this type of bet, as 62.5% of their Premier League home games finished with fewer than four goals. Only Wolves and Everton are better for this type of bet, at least at their stadiums. 

Lately, Arsenal were under 3.5 goals in three of the last four matches in all competitions and only two in the previous ten! Defensively, Arsenal have been incredible throughout the season, keeping a clean sheet in almost half of the Premier League games (16 of 34). They managed to do so in the last two games vs Wolves and Chelsea, and we expect another good defensive performance. 

We saw fewer than four goals every time in the previous eight h2h games at Tottenham's turf! Even though Arsenal is closer to winning the upcoming match, considering all the above, we believe that an under 3.5 goals bet is the safest option for the North London derby.