Willem II vs MVV Maastricht prediction 08.09.2023

• Competition: Eerste Divisie
• Date: Friday, 8th September 2023
• Kickoff: 20:00 UTC +1 / 21:00 CEST
• Venue: Konig Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

After spending eight consecutive seasons in Eredivisie, Willem II were relegated in the 2021/22 season and tried instantly to return to the Netherlands top-flight division last season. However, they had to go through the playoffs and were stopped by Venlo in the Quarter-Finals. This season, they are once again among the teams who should be in the upper part of the league's table. Still, after four rounds, they are 15th with five points. 

MVV Maastricht spent the entire 21st century in the second tier of the Netherlands football. Last year, they had one of the best seasons, as they finished 5th and reached the Playoffs. But just like Willem II, they were also stopped in the Quarter-Finals in the Playoffs, but by Breda. This season, they had a very good start, winning seven points in the first three rounds. 

Willem II vs MVV Maastricht pick: Over 2.5 goals

Willem II are coming to this game after an ugly loss, 4:1 vs Breda at home, despite Breda having only 38% ball possession. Before that loss, Willem II allowed only one goal, but if we take a closer look at those three games, we can see that they are allowing around 14 shots per game, which is really too much. So, it is unreal to expect they can keep a clean sheet with that many goalscoring chances. 

This season, MVV Maastricht were all three times over 2.5 goals with seven scored goals - 2.33 per game, and we expect at least one or two goals against Willem II, who have shown some defensive liabilities in the previous games. 

Last season, MVV Maastricht were one of the most interesting teams in the league because they both scored and allowed many goals. With 65 scored goals, they had the fifth-best offense, but on the other hand, with 65 conceded goals, they were among the worst teams in the league in that department. In fact, the last-placed Jong Utrecht allowed the same number of goals as MVV Maastricht, which says a lot about their defensive capabilities. Due to good offense and poor defense, MMV Maastricht were 27 times over 2.5 goals in 38 rounds - 71%. On the road, that number is even higher (74%), as they were 14 times over 2.5 goals in 19 rounds. 

We have seen three or more goals in two of the last three h2h games.