Villarreal vs Anderlecht prediction 16.03.2023 Conference League

• Competition: Europa Conference League Playoff
• Date: Thursday, 16th March 2023
• Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CET
• Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

The first match between these teams in the 1/8 finals of the Europa Conference League ended in a 1:1 in Belgium. It was a tough match without too many chances on both sides. Per xG statistics, we should have seen only 1.31 goals.

Villarreal are on a four-game unbeaten run, but before that streak, they struggled and lost four in a row. With seven points in the last three games, they climbed to 6th place on the La Liga table. They are much better at Estadio de la Ceramica and have won 23 points - only Barcelona and Real Madrid won more at home than Villarreal. Their defense was on point at home in most games, and as a result, they allowed only ten goals in 12 La Liga matches. 

Anderlecht are having an awful season by their standards. They are one point away from 8th place, giving them a chance to compete in the Europa Conference League next season. In the last match, they won 2:0 against Cercle Brugge, closing the gap between them on the league's table. 

Anderlecht showed they are nowhere as efficient on the road as at home. In the Jupiler Pro League, Anderlecht scored 25 goals in 15 home matches and only 17 in 14 road matches. On the positive side, they allowed two fewer goals on the road. Evidently, they are playing a lot safer on the road, which should also be the case in the Villarreal game.

Villarreal vs Anderlecht pick: Under 2.5 goals

Villarreal have been only nine times over 2.5 goals in 25 La Liga matches. At home, we have mostly seen low-scoring games recently. We have seen just one game with three or more goals in the previous five home matches.

Anderlecht were only once over 2.5 goals in eight road games since the winter break. Compared to home games, they scored 0.5 goals per game less on the road in the domestic league.

In the first h2h game, we have seen two goals.