Venezuela vs Ecuador prediction 16.11.2023

• Competition: World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, South America
• Date: Thursday, 16th November 2023
• Kickoff: 22:00 UK / 23:00 CET
• Venue: Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín)

On Thursday night, Venezuela will welcome Ecuador at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in the fifth round of the South American World Cup Qualifiers. 

Venezuela had terrible Qualiers for the World Cup in the last cycle, finishing as the last-placed team with only ten points in 18 rounds. But after that, Venezuela looked very good and lost just once in ten friendlies against OK competition. They carried that momentum in the World Cup Qualifiers and are now in an excellent position with seven points in four games and are tied with Uruguay and Brazil for 2nd place. 

Ecuador are slowly becoming one of the better teams in the South American region. They played in the previous World Cup in Qatar and almost secured the knockout phase as they needed only one point in the last game of the group phase vs Senegal, but lost 2:1 and blew the historic opportunity. These qualifiers started well for them as they also won seven points like their opponent, Venezuela. However, they got three points deducted for using a document containing false information for one of the players, and they are now 6th on the table. 

Venezuela vs Ecuador pick: Under 2.5 goals

Venezuela are generally a team that often plays low-scoring games. In the last seven games in all competitions, they were only once over 2.5 goals when they won 3:0 vs Chille. They rarely score that many goals, and they scored three in that game only because Chile received a red card at the start of the second half. Defensively, Venezuela were excellent, especially at home, where they haven't allowed a goal in the first two games of the Qualifiers. 

Ecuador are playing exciting football and generates a lot of chances but struggles to convert them against good defensive teams. In four games in the Qualifiers, they failed to score on two occasions and will probably have a hard time scoring against a solid defensive team such as Venezuela. An additional problem for their offense could be the potential absence of their key striker, Enner Valencia. On the defensive end, they have been pretty solid, allowing three goals in the four games so far - 0.75 per game. 

In the previous h2h game, Ecuador won 1:0. Considering the last h2h game and everything above, we think that under 2.5 goals is the safest option for this match.