San Marino vs Slovenia prediction 10.09.2023

• Competition: EURO 2024 Qualifiers
• Date: Sunday, 10th September 2023
• Kickoff: 19:45 UTC +1 / 20:45 CEST
• Venue: San Marino Stadium (Serravalle)

San Marino are the worst national team in the World, according to FIFA World Rankings, but considering the size of the country, that is not too strange. So far, in their history, they have won only one friendly match vs Liechtenstein (1:0) in 2004. In these EURO 2024 Qualifiers, San Marino are once again among the worst teams. Along with Lichtenstein and Gibraltar, San Marino are the only team with zero points and zero scored goals. It would be a success for them to score a goal in the next five matches, but that is not likely. 

Slovenia played in the UEFA Nations League B and finished 3rd in a very tough Group with Serbia, Norway, and Sweden. We could see a steady improvement from Slovenia in the last part of the competition as they haven't lost in the last four games. They continued with good results in these Qualifiers and are currently tied with Denmark for second place with ten points. With a potential big win over San Marino, Slovenia could even climb to first place in Group H. 

San Marino vs Slovenia pick: Slovenia to win and cover the -2 AH

San Marino lost all five matches in these Qualifiers with 17 allowed goals - 3.4 per game. La Serenissima have lost every match by at least two goals so far. Also, they have big problems even scoring a goal, as they only once managed to do so in the last 14 games in all competitions, but that goal was against a very poor team - Saint Lucia. So, it is totally unreal to expect a goal against Slovenia. 

Slovenia are on an excellent run. They lost only once (vs Finland) in the last 11 games in all competitions, with some awesome games vs Norway, Serbia, Sweden, Denmark, etc... In those 11 games, they scored at least two goals in six matches, and scoring two goals vs the worst team in the World is more than a real scenario. 

In the first h2h game in March 2023, Slovenia totally dominated San Marino but won only by 2:0. Still, they deserved to score at least a couple more goals and, according to xG statistics, should have scored 3.07 goals. Additionally, Slovenia won all six h2h games so far, every time by at least two goals difference.