Osnabruck vs Hamburger SV prediction 22.09.2023

• Competition: 2. Bundesliga
• Date: Friday, 22nd September 2023
• Kickoff: 17:30 UTC +1 / 18:30 CEST
• Venue: Stadion an der Bremer Brück (Osnabrück)

In the 21st century, Osnabruck were a team that constantly traveled between the third and the second tier of German Football. Last year, they secured Bundesliga 2. with a strong end of the season where they won six of the last seven games and finished third in 3. Liga. However, this year, they look like the primary candidate for relegation, considering they won just one point in six rounds and sit at the bottom of the league table. 

Hamburger SV is one of the biggest clubs in Germany, which played in the Bundesliga for 55 years before its relegation in the 2017/18 season. In the following seasons, they tried to come back and were among the best teams in 2. Bundesliga but always fell short. Last year, they finished 3rd and had the opportunity to play vs Stuttgart in the playoffs for the spot in Bundesliga, but lost 6:1 on aggregate. This year, they are looking very good and are currently tied with Dusseldorf for first place with 13 points in six matches. This could finally be the year of their comeback to the German top-flight division. 

Osnabruck vs Hamburger SV pick: Hamburger SV to win

Osnabruck have been terrible this season. They won only one point in six rounds and also have by far the worst defensive record in Bundesliga 2 with 17 conceded goals - almost three per game. The only match where they escaped a loss was against Paderborn (1:1), but they could lose that game, too, considering they had only 30% ball possession and much lower xG stats. 

In the last round, Osnabruck suffered a devastating 7:0 loss to Hannover, which will surely affect the team's already shaken morale. Yes, they did have a player less for more than half of the game, but still, seven conceded goals is simply too much. 

On the other hand, Hamburger SV started the season as everyone expected and won 13 points in six matches. Their only loss was in the previous round vs Elversberg 2:1, and we expect them to bounce back with a win in the following game. Also, even though HSV lost that match, the outcome could be much different since they had two goals disallowed by VAR in the first 18 games. 

The general impression is that HSV are a much better team overall, and with such a difference in form, we feel that HSV should have no problems winning all three points at Stadion an der Bremer Brück in Osnabruck.