Lugano vs Bodo/Glimt prediction 21.09.2023

• Competition: Europa Conference League
• Date: Thursday, 21st September 2023
• Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
• Venue: Stadio di Cornaredo (Lugano)

In recent years, Lugano have been among the top five teams in Switzerland. Last season, they failed to qualify for the Group phase in Europa as Hapoel Beer Sheva knocked them out in the third qualifying round. This season, they had a much easier path to the Group phase thanks to finishing 3rd in Super League last season. They lost their only duel in Europa League Qualifiers vs Royale Union SG and ended up in the Europa Conference League Group Phase. Currently, Lugano are in poor form, losing three of the last four matches, with their only win being against a lower-league team, Lancy, in the Cup. 

Bodo/Glimt have been Norway's best or second-best team in the past four years. Last season, they finished second, 18 points behind Molde, and this season, they once again look like one of the best teams. Right now, after 21 rounds, Bodo/Glimt are 2nd, just two points away from the 1st-placed Viking. Even though they are in 2nd place, they are considered by the bookies as clear-cut favorites to win the title with odds only around 1.7, which says a lot about this team.

Lugano vs Bodo/Glimt pick: Over 2.5 goals

Lugano are in bad form in the recent few games, losing three of the previous four matches. Still, at home, they are a very solid team, very capable of scoring a couple of goals. In three home games this season, they scored seven times, and last year, they scored 32 goals in 18 home league games - 1.8 per game. So, we do not think they should have no problems scoring against Norway's vice-champions, which likes to play attacking football.

Bodo/Glimt are the key for this bet. They are a very exciting team that mostly plays high-scoring games. In Eliteserien, they already scored 53 goals in 21 rounds and were 15 times over 2.5 goals - 71%. In the Europe Conference League Qualifiers, they were all six times over 2.5 goals so far, scoring 17 goals! They are a very offensively oriented team, and because of it, they often concede many goals. 

In the last five matches, even though they haven't lost, Bodo/Glimt allowed ten goals - two per game! On the road, their defense is having big problems keeping their net intact and, in the last eight matches, kept a clean sheet only once - vs Pynik. So, we expect a high-scoring game with goals on both sides.