Latvia vs Croatia prediction 18.11.2023

• Competition: EURO 2024 Qualifiers
• Date: Saturday, 18th November 2023
• Kickoff: 17:00 UK / 18:00 CET
• Venue: Skonto stadions (Riga)

Latvia were solid in the previous UEFA Nations League, winning their Group and earning promotion to League C. But, to be fair, that was against very poor competition. In these Qualifiers, they have been very poor and will finish the competition as the last team in the Group, regardless of the result in this (last) game. For now, EURO 2004 in Portugal will remain Latvia's only appearance in any major tournament, and subjectively, it doesn't look like that will change any time soon.

Croatia have been among the best teams in Europe and the world in recent years. They were 3rd in the previous World Cup in Qatar and were also great in the UEFA Nations League A as they won their Group and reached the finals in the Playoffs, where they lost on penalties to Spain. In these EURO 2024 Qualifiers, they had an excellent start, but with two losses vs Turkey and Wales, they really complicated their lives. Now, they are 3rd in the Group, and even though they are tied with Wales with ten points each, Wales have a better h2h score. However, even if Croatia fails to secure EURO through the Qualifiers, they will at least play in the playoffs because they won their Group in the UEFA Nations League. 

Latvia vs Croatia pick: Under 3.5 goals

Latvia have big problems offensively, having scored only five goals in seven games so far, and will have a really challenging task of scoring against an outstanding defensive team in Croatia. Defensively, Latvia were far from impressive with 17 goals in seven games, but at home, they are significantly better with "only" four goals in three games. 

Croatia have a very strong team, but they are in poor form with two losses in a row vs Turkey and Wales. Even though they have a nice squad, their offense has been by far the weakest part of the team for some time. They are generating a lot of good goalscoring chances but haven't been efficient. To be fair, they have never been a team that scores a lot. For example, they finished third in the previous World Cup but scored only seven goals in seven games (in regular time). In these Qualifiers, they have scored only ten in six rounds. Because of that excellent defense and somewhat poor offense, Croatia were only once over 3.5 goals in six games.

Croatia are a better team and we expect them to win the upcoming game. But considering everything above, we feel much more confident in an under 3.5 goals bet than in Croatia to win by two or three goals difference.