Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund prediction 16.09.2023

• Competition: Bundesliga
• Date: Saturday, 16th September 2023
• Kickoff: 14:30 UK / 15:30 CEST
• Venue: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

The last season was probably the best for Freiburg in the 21st century. They finished 5th in the Bundesliga with 59 points in 34 rounds. Still, the general impression is they could be even better and secure the Champions League. However, with just three points in the final four games, they blew the opportunity. In the current season, they won six points in three rounds. Still, the latest 5:0 loss to Stuttgart is a big reason for concern. 

Borussia Dortmund were so close in dethroning Bayern Munich in the last season. In the last round of the Bundesliga, they only needed a win vs Mainz at home to win the title, but they failed to do so and failed to win the title the first time after the 2011/12 season. Currently, they sit in 9th place with five points in three rounds, but to be fair, they still haven't played vs good competition. Even though it is still early to judge, it seems that the departure of Jude Bellingham is a massive problem for the Black and Yellows.

Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund pick: Under 3.5 goals

Freiburg were only once over 3.5 goals this season in three Bundesliga games. That was against Stuttgart when they totally collapsed and lost 5:0. In the other two games, they looked very solid defensively and allowed just one goal, so I do not expect they will repeat that poor defensive display at home. Offensively, they haven't shown much, scoring just three goals in three Bundesliga games. Last season, Freiburg were one of the teams with the fewest games with four or more goals - only 12 in 34 rounds (35%).

Just like Freiburg, Borussia Dortmund were just once over 3.5 goals in the first three rounds. The only game were they went over was vs Heidenheim (2:2). But if it weren't for two penalties, we could easily see another low-scoring game. In the previous season, Borussia Dortmund were over 3.5 goals in 50% of their games in the Bundesliga. Still, the majority of those high-scoring games were at home because they scored 55 goals at Signal Iduna Park, compared to only 28 on the road.  

We have seen two games with fewer than four goals in the previous three h2h games at Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg. Considering we haven't seen too good offensive games from either team, we choose under 3.5 goals bet for this tie.