Finland vs Northern Ireland prediction 17.11.2023

• Competition: EURO 2024 Qualifiers
• Date: Friday, 17th November 2023
• Kickoff: 17:00 UK / 18:00 CET
• Venue: Helsinki Olympic Stadium (Helsinki)

On Friday afternoon, two teams without a theoretical chance to secure EURO via the Qualifiers will face off at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium in Helsinki. 

Finland had an excellent start in the Qualifiers with four wins in the first five matches and were on the right path to secure only its second appearance in the EURO. Still, after three losses in a row, they are now 4th in the group, seven points behind the first two placed teams, Slovenia and Denmark, with only two rounds remaining. Luckily for them, they had a nice run in the UEFA Nations League, and because of it, they will have the opportunity to secure EURO 2024 through the playoffs. 

Northern Ireland are coming off a terrible UEFA Nations League run where they almost got relegated from League C, considering they were tied with Cyprus for the last place in group 6 but had a better h2h score. They continued with terrible performances in the Qualifiers and are currently 5th in the group with only six points in eight rounds. But those six points came against the worst team in the World - San Marino. 

Finland vs Northern Ireland pick: Under 2.5 goals

Finland are in terrible form, with three losses in a row and only one goal scored. They generally struggle offensively, and if we exclude the game vs San Marino when they scored six goals, Finland scored only six goals in the remaining seven games - 0.86 per game. Still, defensively, they have been pretty good, especially at home, where they allowed three goals in four rounds. 

Northern Ireland have been absolutely terrible offensively. They are creating goalscoring chances, but they seem to lack the quality to convert them. So far, they scored only seven goals in eight rounds, but when we take into account that five of those seven goals came against San Marino, we can see just how poor their offensive record is. 

In the previous h2h game, Finland won 1:0 in Belfast. Considering the last game h2h, Finland's poor form, and Northern Ireland's terrible goalscoring record, we think the under 2.5 goals is the safest option for this tie.