AIK vs Degerfors prediction 18.09.2023

• Competition: Allsvenskan
• Date: Monday, 18th September 2023
• Kickoff: 18:10 UTC +1 / 19:10 CEST
• Venue: Friends Arena (Solna)

AIK have mostly been among the best teams in Sweden in the last 15 years, but this season has been a disaster so far. They are constantly around the danger zone and currently sit in 14th place, which leads to a relegation playout. Still, compared to the first part of the season, where they were atrocious and won just once in 12 games, we can see significant improvement since early June.

Since coming to Allsvenskan in 2021, Degerfors have been very close to being relegated back to Superettan. In two seasons in Allsvenskan, they finished 13th, very close to the danger zone. This season is no different, as they are currently in 13th place with only one point more than their next opponent - AIK. 

AIK vs Degerfors pick: Over 2.5 goals

Even though AIK are still in the danger zone, we can see a significant improvement from them, especially on the offensive end. In the last five matches, they have scored 11 goals - 2.2 per game. Still, defensively, they are not too great, as they allowed nine goals during that five-game period, so it is unreal to expect a clean sheet. In the last five matches, AIK were over 2.5 goals every time. 

Degerfors were 14 times over 2.5 goals in 22 matches - 64%. The only three teams that had more games (15) with three or more goals are Hacken, Malmo, and Norrkoping. But considering they are by far the worst defensive team in the league with 47 allowed goals in 22 matches, so many high-scoring games shouldn't be a surprise. On the other hand, they have been solid on the offense in the previous matches, scoring at least a goal in the last six matches while facing some good teams like Hacken and Djurgarden. 

In the first h2h game this season, Degefors won 2:1 at home. This time at Friends Arena, we think AIK could take all three points, but more importantly, we expect another game with three or more goals.